Month: November 2018

Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, is widely acknowledged to have the most advanced self-driving technologies for vehicles. So, if Waymo is having troubles keeping journeys autonomous and safe, what can be said for the rest of the industry? That is the question that has arisen since Waymo put safety drivers back into its vans. Hype would have it that we are on the cusp of an automotive revolution in which we settle back and let the car find its way safely from point A to point B or beyond. It turns out technology is not ready for every eventuality a driver is likely to encounter. There are bizarre occurrences that an experienced person can negotiate but a system cannot. It gets confused or it misses critical events completely. Yet, the public is waiting impatiently for these wonder vehicles that will allow one to text safely or remain on the phone or become otherwise engaged with hands off the steering wheel. It seems they will wait longer, and skeptics think they might wait forever. It would have been better for Waymo and its competitors if they had been underestimated. No one would be surprised by occasional failure. But the hype got ahead of itself as it often does.

First it was Comdex. Now it is CeBIT. Places for computer and software vendors to show their wares continue to disappear. They are victims of declining attendance. The huge crowds that used to show up have thinned. One wonders why, and one answer is that they choked on their success. They were overwhelming and one never had a chance to see everything nor to spend much time when there was an interesting technology that surfaced. The cost of the exhibits and their yield wasn’t there. It took months for companies to prepare and the result was more tire-kicking than sales. So they started to withdraw and that was it for the two shows. Venues remain but they are not as large as CeBIT. Maybe that is a good outcome.

The CEO of Delta airlines works hard to inspire and motivate employees. He meets with them frequently. He stays after meetings for dozens of selfies with starstruck personnel. He is an unabashed rah-rah executive who believes in his people. All that, however, might not be enough to keep the carrier successful. Inexorable costs are dragging profits down. There is only one way to offset them at the moment — flying planes full.  That, however, might not be enough if another recession hits and business class pulls back. The CEO is compensating partially by entering international routes where fares are more stable and returns better, but even that might not be sufficient. He is faced with two challenges — keeping employees focused and finding new sources of profitable revenue. Both are difficult in a business where profits are rare and employee unrest frequent. That he has succeeded for the moment is not enough for worried investors. He might need to spend more time communicating with Wall Street. It is tough to be pulled three ways at once.

The conflagrations of California with tens of thousands of structures burned has opened the question again of building for wildfires. It is possible to design and construct a structure that won’t go up in flames, but there is little chance of that happening. There are too many vested interests in traditional construction. So, if houses are erected on the scorched earth again, they are likely to be stick-built wood and sheetrock with flammable roofing material. It would take a major publicity campaign, a change in zoning laws and contractor requirements to prevent future destruction. At this juncture, while citizens are digging through remains of their homes and searching for whatever was not destroyed, it might be too early to act. People are grieving for loss of loved ones and possessions. But there isn’t much time before citizens will seek permits to rebuild. It is then local authorities must be ready with new requirements.

The cliche that a picture is worth a thousand words proves true once again. The photo of a barefoot, diapered toddler wailing as she flees from tear gas at the Mexican border has gone viral. It has provoked condemnation of the Trump administration and its hard-edged policies toward migrants. It has given a hot issue to Democrats as they get ready to take over the House. It has sparked revulsion. For all that, Trump seems unconcerned and blames the refugees for their troubles. There have been many words spoken and written already about this photo, but the difference will come if legislators decide to act. They would have to take on the White House, which would be difficult, but it can become a campaign issue for 2020. The message is clear. This is not who we are. American is a nation of immigrants.

NASA has scheduled the first SpaceX flight with a Dragon crew capsule on board. It is a test. There will be no astronauts aboard. The space agency is taking progress step by step, leaving little to chance. When there are humans involved, there is little room for experiment. NASA learned that lesson the hard way after losing crews in its early days and during its time with the shuttle. It is a matter of credibility. SpaceX has to prove that its capsule can do the job of ferrying astronauts to and from the international space station. If it does, NASA need no longer to rely on Russia for transport. Russia for its part lost a bit of credibility when its most recent rocket failed with a space crew on board. They landed safely, but it was scary.

It is frigid on the East Coast and the Macy’s Thanksgiving parade participants are shivering. When I awoke at 8 this morning, the temperature was 16. That might not seem so bad for those who dwell in the upper Midwest, but it is more than enough for the Tri-state area.

May you and your families have a happy Thanksgiving and enjoy your time together.

One might think with the immensity of space there would be no tragedy of the commons where everyone uses orbital elevations and thereby wrecks them. But, that is how experts are seeing an upcoming SpaceX launch with 64+ Cubesat satellites. The charge is that SpaceX is cluttering the space commons. It turns out there is only so much room circling the earth and already with hundreds of satellites and associated launch debris up there, tracking new objects is difficult and dangerous. What is to prevent future satellites from being obliterated by fast moving objects? This could prove to be a PR problem for SpaceX sooner or later. There isn’t enough room for everyone. One would need to clear dead satellites and junk before sending more in their place. That, or wait until they fall and burn up in the atmosphere, which could take years.

Pharmaceutical companies are going to Third World countries to test drugs. Part of their protocol is to infect volunteers with a disease then test treatments on them. So far, there have been no complaints from those who have been experimented on, and companies have been careful to explain to potential subjects the risks and rewards. But this could change quickly. It takes only one unethical operator to create a PR crisis. That is why drug companies are stepping carefully to avoid charges of exploitation. There is good reason for them to be in these locales. It is where the diseases are and where populations have developed different immune responses based on proximity. But the temptation to pay subjects little and to expose them to greater risks is ever present. It is almost assured that someone will take an unethical action at some point then all pharmaceutical companies will be brought to the bar.

A company shouldn’t issue a threat lightly. It draws a public line which cannot be crossed without jeopardizing the business’ credibility if it doesn’t act. That is why this threat has implications for the EU. If the Union imposes a link tax on Google news, the company says it might shut down the service to member countries. This in turn will diminish the reach of news reporting to internet users and publishers. There is good reason for Google to worry. The EU has been particularly strong in regulating internet companies, and there is no hint of them pulling back anytime soon.  There is a question of who would get hurt the most if Google ends the service — Google or the EU? One could argue the issue either way. The company would save money. It does not sell its news service. On the other hand, it would lose millions of clicks a day. EU news readers would lose a convenient central source to update themselves. Google has acted once already. It cut off Spain after that country imposed a link tax.  Now time will tell if the rest of the EU goes dark.